Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1736
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 20 2025 18:01:44

ACUS11 KWNS 201801
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201801=20
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-202000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1736
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Areas affected...Portions of eastern Pennsylvania into New
Jersey...southern New York...and western portions of New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 201801Z - 202000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms, primarily capable of
damaging wind gusts, are anticipated this afternoon and into the
evening across portions of New England into eastern Pennsylvania,
southern New York, and New Jersey. Though there is some uncertainty
in the degree of convective organization and evolution, a severe
thunderstorm watch could be warranted later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Satellite and radar trends show convection developing
across PA into NY in an environment characterized by moderate
buoyancy (~1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) and strong deep-layer shear (40-45
kt 0-6km). Though deep convection has yet to form, it is anticipated
that as daytime heating and mixing continues, the environment will
support strong, organized thunderstorm updrafts.=20

Given long, straight hodographs and appreciable 0-1 km lapse rates
approaching 8 C/km, along with seasonably high precipitable water
content approaching 2.00 inches, the primary threat will be for
damaging straight-line winds of 55-70 MPH within thunderstorm
downdrafts. Hail or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any
stronger, isolated organized convection that occurs, though
low-level shear and mid-level lapse rates do not suggest that they
are likely at this time.=20

A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed later this afternoon as
convective trends continue to be monitored.

...Halbert/Smith.. 07/20/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5dKdiF1HEZj6lu8NPMUXjduoYsef8MHnIQLUIdy40eQVbuymMiRxSUUmr5rIqA86TKd1nxpe6=
9QBf7E0gyhQrli2ZWs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON   42977429 43247363 43327321 43377270 43217212 42927176
            42517159 41997157 41567178 41257213 40967271 40687355
            40577420 40477470 40647520 40957580 41247601 41777616
            41997617 42027613 42467539 42707483 42757473 42977429=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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