Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 20 2025 08:47:17

ACUS48 KWNS 200847
SWOD48
SPC AC 200845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

....DISCUSSION...
The latest medium-range output offers little change from prior runs
concerning the general large-scale pattern evolution during the
middle to latter portion of the coming work week.  It still appears
that a fairly significant mid-level low currently emerging from the
northwestern Canadian Arctic latitudes will slowly progress across
and east-southeast of the Hudson Bay vicinity, to the north of an
increasingly prominent mid-level high evolving across the Ohio
Valley.  As this contributes to a belt of strengthening westerly to
northwesterly flow between the two features, it appears that
low-level moistening in a corridor beneath the southern periphery of
this regime will support substantive destabilization, and increasing
potential for organized strong to severe thunderstorm development.

The extent to which this corridor evolves south of the international
border, across parts of the Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes
region toward the St. Lawrence Valley/New England remains at least a
bit unclear.  Adding to this uncertainty, forcing for this potential
convective development will be largely associated with sub-synoptic
perturbations with low predictability at this extended time frame.

...Kerr.. 07/20/2025

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