Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1734
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 20 2025 04:56:17

ACUS11 KWNS 200456
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200455=20
SDZ000-200600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1734
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Montana...southwest North
Dakota...western South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 528...

Valid 200455Z - 200600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 528
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms will pose a risk for large hail and
severe wind gusts through 06z. A local watch extension may be needed
for portions of South Dakota beyond the scheduled expiration.

DISCUSSION...Isolated severe thunderstorms were located over extreme
northwest and southwest SD at 0450z, with a history of large hail
and severe gusts.  Latest mesoanalysis shows instability continuing
to slowly diminish with the onset of nocturnal cooling and prior
convective outflows, however there remains some potential for a
severe threat to continue across western SD after the scheduled 06z
expiration of WW 528. Thus, a local extension in time may be
required prior to 06z.

...Bunting.. 07/20/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5fGBOdV2ZYJAcjzGlAug8p1-ntdNJECtU7MEbfzCEgayGH6sy9YjeIdY_5yu1slHN0VLEYTZe=
dJBSpZcoH6s2cqH_uw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...

LAT...LON   43080299 43570302 43810298 43960281 44010269 44000248
            44010214 43710133 43060129 43080299=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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