Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1732
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 20 2025 02:12:06

ACUS11 KWNS 200212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200211=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-200315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1732
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0911 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...Portions of eastern Montana...northeast
Wyoming...southwest North Dakota...western South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 528...

Valid 200211Z - 200315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 528
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will continue across the watch
area, with large to very large hail, and strong/damaging gusts as
the primary severe hazards.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar composite at 0205z shows three areas of
severe thunderstorms across the watch area and in the general
vicinity of a northwest-southeast oriented boundary/instability
gradient. One area of storms has recently developed/strengthened
over northeast MT, where subtle ascent from an embedded shortwave
trough continues to contribute to storm development. Severe storms
over east-central/southeast MT have begun to evolve into a small
cluster, while storms over western SD remain more isolated.=20=20

The environment across the watch area remains moderately unstable
with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, and effective shear of 40-50 kts.
These storms were also along the eastern periphery of a plume of
steeper mid-level lapse rates. Latest hi-res guidance suggests these
storms should continue to move generally east across the watch area
through 06z and pose a continued risk for large/isolated very large
hail with the more discrete cells and damaging gusts.

...Bunting.. 07/20/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9bG0GrWTLssKO7tV4LjutNMZuS-Hg4iuB6WzV_d5rgOUm6S5VIxFWBMH3dDDOw0ZwFKxwRXXb=
zK5HXJwiJyrVaqDnSM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   43120306 43740428 46320563 47400658 48620706 49060657
            49050603 48990504 48830452 46970278 45990201 43340221
            43120306=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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