Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1731
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 20 2025 02:10:35

ACUS11 KWNS 200210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200210=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-200415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1731
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0910 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...Central and eastern Nebraska/Kansas Border Region

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 529...

Valid 200210Z - 200415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 529
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe/damaging winds are possible along the
Nebraska/Kansas border over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...A small bowing segment has developed from an earlier
supercell and is moving east just west of Blue Hill. This has shown
a stronger wind signal from KUEX velocity data with a small region
of 60-70 kts at about 1500 ft. Measured gusts of 60-70 mph have
occurred with this storm over the last hour. With the increase in
the low-level jet this evening, additional storms have also develop
ahead of and to the south of this storm. Severe/damaging winds are
the primary hazard this evening, particularly with the storm west of
Blue Hill. The downstream environment remains favorable with 40 kts
of effective shear and 3500 J/kg of MLCAPE. However, MLCIN is also
increasing. Another 2-3 hours of strong to severe storms appear
possible. Whether additional watches will be needed into southeast
Nebraska/northeast Kansas is not clear.

...Wendt.. 07/20/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5aIlra86JxgDQ8GWMK6LEISTY_52pWGeqP7TqcIk7PeYye2LdU42s3bq0sQW5NG41p6F6UPyH=
UFGq9nMTl2P4xX_-1U$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...GLD...

LAT...LON   39380000 40529930 40719750 40419670 39779662 39429758
            39359884 39380000=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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