Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 20 2025 01:57:00

AWUS01 KWNH 200156
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-200755-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0765
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
955 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...Northern KS...Southern and Eastern NE...Far
Northwest MO...Western and Central IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200155Z - 200755Z

SUMMARY...Organizing clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
overnight will pose a threat for scattered areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Strong convective clusters are seen in GOES-E IR
satellite imagery focusing across portions of northern KS,
south-central to eastern NE, and into far western IA. The activity
is being facilitated by the arrival of subtle shortwave energy
rounding the top of the subtropical ridge over the southern Plains
while also interacting with a very unstable and strongly sheared
environment in vicinity of a frontal zone draped across the region.

MLCAPE values of 3000 to 4000 J/kg are in place with as much as
50+ kts of effective bulk shear. As a nocturnally enhanced
low-level jet continues to strengthen overnight, there should be a
considerable amount of upscale growth to the convection over the
next several hours.

In fact, the low-level jet is expected to increase to as much as
40 to 50+ kts with the nose of this overrunning the front across
areas of eastern NE and western IA going through 06Z.
Well-organized convective clusters should impact these areas, with
a combination of multi-cell and supercell thunderstorm activity
tending to merge and consolidate into a larger scale MCS by later
tonight.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour
with the stronger storms and especially with the low-level jet
favoring strong moisture transport/convergence into the front.

Given the highly organized nature of the convection overnight,
with cell-merger and some cell-training concerns, there may be
some localized storm totals of 3 to 5 inches. Some of the 18Z HREF
and 12Z REFS guidance supports this. The more sensitive antecedent
conditions across the region are over toward far eastern NE and
through western and central IA where soil moisture is greater and
some streamflows are above normal. These areas in particular may
see a threat for scattered areas of flash flooding overnight.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4ZMezfEBLwE789I7EBqZaFshXK_Aam26tG78mYQyhchw7DvivFP70LUlp-5dCz9pfE28=
hQyuNLA-wFVYE0yqDbyrbrM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...DMX...DVN...EAX...FSD...GID...GLD...ICT...
LBF...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON   42759361 42639248 42049172 41309164 40809241=20
            40379468 39899631 39059852 38959997 39320056=20
            39890064 40570006 41569757 42459526=20

=3D =3D =3D
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