Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jul 20 2025 01:03:35 ACUS01 KWNS 200102 SWODY1 SPC AC 200100 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ....SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible this evening into late tonight from parts of the central and northern High Plains into parts of the Corn Belt. ....Central Plains into parts of IA/IL... Strong to extreme buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear (as noted on the 00Z OAX sounding) remain in place across much of NE into western/central IA. Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat for large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado or two through much of the evening. A nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may support an increase in storm coverage later tonight from eastern NE into parts of IA. Potential for organized MCS development remains uncertain, but any substantial storm clustering could result in a damaging wind and isolated hail threat spreading eastward overnight, potentially reaching parts of northern IL before the end of the period. ....Northern High Plains... Widely scattered supercells may persist through much of the evening across the northern High Plains, within an environment characterized by moderate to strong instability and favorable deep-layer shear (as depicted in the 00Z GGW and UNR soundings). Large hail and localized severe gusts may accompany the strongest storms. Some modest upscale growth is possible late tonight from eastern MT into ND, in association with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across southern SK. While an isolated severe threat could continue across this region into the overnight hours, decreasing instability and increasing CINH should eventually result in a gradual weakening trend. ....Mid Atlantic... A few strong storms are ongoing this evening from eastern VA into NC. Localized wind damage remains possible with the strongest remaining storms, though the threat should eventually diminish as storms weaken with time and/or move offshore. ....WI/Lower MI vicinity... Some increase in storm coverage remains possible this evening across parts of WI and lower MI, in the vicinity of a cold front. Modest buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear could support a strong storm or two capable of locally damaging wind. ...Dean.. 07/20/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .