Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 20 2025 00:40:46

AWUS01 KWNH 200039
FFGMPD
PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-200500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0764
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
838 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...Central to Southeast OH...Much of WV...Southwest
VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200037Z - 200500Z

SUMMARY...Some additional pockets of flash flooding may still be
possible going through this evening from additional scattered
areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery in conjunction
with radar shows some scattered areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms impacting portions of central to southeast OH down
through central and southern WV and parts of southwest VA.

The airmass across the region is still fairly unstable with MLCAPE
values of 1000 to 1500+ J/kg, and it continues to be very moist
with PWs well into the 75th to 90th percentile of daily
climatology. Additionally, there is some modest shear overhead
with stronger mid-level flow, and this will all support some
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates that may still reach 1 to
2 inches/hour.

Remnant upstream vort energy from convection earlier in the day
coupled with the thermodynamic environment and local orographics
should still support a convective threat at least through the
remainder of the evening hours, with some spotty additional
rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches possible.

Given the wet antecedent conditions and the additional localized
rainfall totals, there may be some additional pockets of flash
flooding this evening. This will especially be the case over parts
of the central Appalachians given the influence of rugged terrain.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-rKV9QO-QV7mSdeyTiIIlAqJy6kgqqFwpDDKNbb2P_xBSHZN4Re9Xc8AXpfnYZjyjJss=
zS4wZfHjM-wKoJAWmsA9Iig$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   41118153 40598073 39718018 38887934 38377889=20
            37797879 37087901 36727949 36868038 37568152=20
            38328211 39278258 40328301 40978254=20

=3D =3D =3D
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