Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1729
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 20 2025 00:06:04

ACUS11 KWNS 200006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200005=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-200130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1729
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0705 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...South-central Nebraska into far north-central
Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 529...

Valid 200005Z - 200130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 529
continues.

SUMMARY...A narrow window for a locally greater tornado threat will
exist with supercells in south-central Nebraska. An additional risk
of severe/damaging winds is also possible as this activity grows
upscale.

DISCUSSION...Two supercells continue to move southeastward into
south-central Nebraska early this evening. With low-level hodographs
from KUEX showing an increase in low-level SRH over the last hour,
these storms will have some potential to produce a tornado. However,
that window of opportunity may be relative confined in time given
the ongoing signs of upscale growth on local radar. When this
occurs, a greater threat for severe/damaging wind gusts would exist.
Large hail remains possible, but MRMS MESH estimates have come down
as storm interaction has steadily increased.

...Wendt.. 07/20/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7cG6u0L8SEtMVL8wRGNbO64QKMj8BPGDjQI_yFw_2YPLfz3RQ9vCtm_SzdTA6eksYw8FDdhy1=
WoyRzPLpxnNjwDNT-I$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   40660030 41019975 41089958 40799868 40149862 39989904
            39899936 39999979 40180006 40490034 40660030=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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