Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 19 2025 23:13:42

AWUS01 KWNH 192313
FFGMPD
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-200330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0763
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
712 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...Mid-Atlantic States

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 192312Z - 200330Z

SUMMARY...Very heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue
through the remainder of the evening. Additional areas of flash
flooding are expected with locally dangerous and life-threatening
urban flash flooding impacts still a threat.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with regional radar
data shows very heavy shower and thunderstorm activity continuing
to impact the Mid-Atlantic region, including multiple metropolitan
areas. The convection is being facilitated by the interaction of
weak shortwave energy advancing east across the region and
interaction with a very moist and unstable airmass pooled across
the region in close proximity to a stationary front.

A north/south axis of MLCAPE values reaching 1500 to 2500 J/kg is
seen in the latest RAP analysis extending from central MD
south-southeastward down through central to southeast VA and
northeast NC. This includes the I-95 and I-64 corridors from
Baltimore to Washington D.C and on down through the Richmond and
Hampton Roads/Norfolk vicinity. PWs are very high across the
region with values of 2.0 to 2.5 inches which is suggestive a deep
tropical environment.

Extremely high rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches/hour have been
occurring with a number of the stronger thunderstorm clusters,
including over the last couple of hours around the Washington D.C.
metropolitan area where there is still an active Flash Flood
Emergency (parts of Montgomery County, MD). Several locations just
north of D.C. have reported 4 to 5+ inches of rain in just a span
of 2 to 3 hours.

Additional strong clusters of thunderstorms are also occurring
farther south down through central VA and locally across parts of
northern NC where cooling convective tops have been noted over the
last hour.

The latest hires model guidance suggests locally a few additional
inches of rain may be possible through the remainder of the
evening. This will support additional areas of flash flooding
which will include concerns for dangerous and life-threatening
urban flash flooding impacts.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6wYdJZlYetTsOyBPl2bwYPjRmYT2VVsXsKbI0HEnwirjv4hFgGcT-oRNromwbc-efPVI=
oQ9MBtIx1Xcsi2heKsAPlR4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...MHX...PHI...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON   39657583 38447551 36477583 35497677 35447894=20
            36157950 37537846 38727778 39577682=20

=3D =3D =3D
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