Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1726
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 19 2025 22:18:34

ACUS11 KWNS 192218
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192218=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-200015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1726
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0518 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Nebraska into far western Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 192218Z - 200015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Should storms develop, large hail and severe winds would
be possible. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, but a
watch is not anticipated in the short term.

DISCUSSION...Storms that developed and showed brief intensity in
northeast Nebraska have since weakened. Additional cumulus
development has been noted along another surface boundary in
east-central Nebraska. While strong heating and a very moist airmass
has allowed MLCAPE to rise above 3000 J/kg, forcing for ascent
remains nebulous. With the weak forcing and anvil cirrus from a
cluster of supercells in west-central Nebraska moving in, whether
additional storms can initiate this afternoon is not clear. Strong
effective shear and the large buoyancy would support at least brief
storm organization and potential for large hail and severe wind
gusts. Watch issuance in the short term is not certain, but
convective trends will continue to be monitored.

...Wendt/Hart.. 07/19/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!98HOQkFkpSzruer1346fkcvIrng-6fYipHFVQPOEL4JDNJK_TDO27XwviY6c4eRx4bHn1Sxjw=
9y77Yb4IBM26Pv5Zgk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON   41919810 42179812 42479805 42709765 42549683 41979553
            41239532 41049544 40969570 40969645 40979707 40989739
            41089762 41299783 41919810=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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