Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1725
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 19 2025 21:49:41

ACUS11 KWNS 192149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192149=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-192345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1725
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...Far east-central Colorado...northwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 192149Z - 192345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and severe wind gusts are possible with a
couple of clusters of supercells moving into/through northwest
Kansas. A watch is possible should convective trends warrant.

DISCUSSION...Storms have developed in far eastern Colorado along a
weak surface trough/dryline. Strong surface heating has promoted
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Shear increases with northern extent near the
Kansas/Nebraska border. The overall environment will support at
least isolated large hail and severe wind gusts this afternoon.

The need for a watch is uncertain in this scenario. Large-scale
ascent is quite weak and dewpoint spreads at the surface are rather
large. This may lead to generally outflow dominant storms that are
intense for a short period. This is evident in KGLD radar imagery
with storms along and south of I-70. Storms near the Nebraska border
may be more organized for longer given the greater effective shear
(approaching 40-45 kts). The probability of a watch is slightly
higher there for that reason. Convective trends will need to be
monitored over the next couple of hours.

...Wendt/Hart.. 07/19/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!68C5nkBmtzQyaPOJvRU5dlVedvhJ2NmnfAHnfp70zKFsj3MGkIDmW1LLZbO6eZyDuV3pr269z=
8U-w4o3l2NgNevweiI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON   39090008 38500086 38200187 38360239 38890277 39340289
            39770229 40120153 40250010 39919984 39090008=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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