Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 19 2025 21:06:11

AWUS01 KWNH 192106
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-200200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0762
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
505 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...Northern IN...Northwest OH...Far Southern Lower
MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192105Z - 200200Z

SUMMARY...An axis of concentrated showers and thunderstorms with
very heavy rainfall rates may result in isolated areas of flash
flooding heading through the early evening hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite imagery shows an axis of fairly
slow-moving showers and thunderstorms advancing across northern IN
which should gradually advance downstream into at least northwest
OH over the next few hours. Some cells may also impact portions of
far southern Lower MI as well. Rainfall rates across quite heavy
with the activity, with MRMS data showing rates of 1.5 to 2.5
inches/hour.

This activity is associated with a rather strong vort center and
associated shortwave trough advancing east across the Midwest and
its interaction with a moist and moderately unstable airmass.
MLCAPE values across north-central to northeast IN and into
northwest OH are near 1000 J/kg with PWs of 1.75 to 2 inches.

The latest HRRR guidance suggests this activity should tend to
have some longevity into at least the early evening hours before
it begins to weaken with the loss of daytime heating. Additional
rainfall amounts with this axis of convection which will be
capable of locally training over the same area may reach 3 to 4+
inches.

Some isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible as a result
over the next few hours which will include some localized urban
flash flooding impacts.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5i0nTFsTWfEPfSxb6IaYBvSKHPro_2zyqFhxMfxtOAJZ2HU7UNCKdxfZ69lkvu0cczYf=
HZOdOuynsP2wosFdt7UsskY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   41948571 41918353 41378320 41058389 41048607=20
            41298709 41668703=20

=3D =3D =3D
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