Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1723
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 19 2025 20:42:33

ACUS11 KWNS 192042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192042=20
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-192245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1723
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Lower-Missouri Valley into northern
Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 192042Z - 192245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms developing over the lower-Missouri
River Valley may intensify through early evening and pose a severe
hail/wind threat. Exact storm evolution is uncertain, but watch
issuance may be needed if intensification occurs.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery and lightning data show the
development of elevated thunderstorms over far northwest MO on the
eastern fringe of a plume of steeper (7-8 C/km) mid-level lapse
rates and within a zone of focused isentropic ascent between 925-850
mb. Although these storms are currently elevated, recent forecast
soundings suggests that lingering MLCIN will be increasingly
diminished as surface temperatures approach the low 90s. As such, it
is possible that this activity gradually becomes surface based over
the next 1-2 hours through peak heating and begins to fully realize
the 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE environment. GOES visible imagery and
derived wind products also show strong directional and speed shear
across the region, which should aid in storm organization and
intensification - likely into supercells with an attendant threat
for severe winds and large hail - if storms can be maintained. While
exact convective evolution is uncertain, watch issuance may be
needed if storms begin to intensify and pose a more robust severe
threat into northern MO.

...Moore/Smith.. 07/19/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_klXAbG_-LPtMDdRdAnTsP_hhzhqJdKOB29bjdjOnMar-rHJQz967araK4BmQSgoFQDCv8l74=
R9pLBP_an7ZPplfE6c$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39419482 39649549 39919612 40179629 40529620 40769575
            40829502 40709334 40539298 40269264 39849245 39529258
            39219282 39119304 39059341 39159391 39419482=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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