Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 19 2025 19:10:51

AWUS01 KWNH 191909
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-200105-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0761
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
308 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...Eastern AZ...Western and Northern NM...Far
Southern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191908Z - 200105Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms may
pose an isolated threat for some flash flooding going through the
afternoon hours. This will include some potential impacts to the
normally dry washes and burn scar locations.

DISCUSSION...Sufficient levels of monsoonal moisture once again
remain in place for an additional round today of diurnally driven
and orographically enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity. The
moisture anomalies today are a tad less than 24 hours ago, but
there is proximity of an elongated mid-level vort center across
eastern AZ through western NM.

This energy combined with orographic forcing and cloud-driven
differential heating boundaries should promote at least scattered
areas of locally heavy showers and thunderstorms. The greater
concentrations of surface-based instability are currently over
southeast AZ and up across north-central to northeast NM, and
these areas will tend to be the initial focus for convection
before coverage then gradually expands in a scattered fashion
across the remainder of eastern AZ, western/central NM and up into
far southern CO.

Rainfall rates may reach 1 to 1.5 inches/hour with the stronger
cells, with again concerns for much of this to fall in as little
as 30 minutes given the pulse nature of the activity and slow
cell-motions. The 12Z NAM-Conest/FV3 LAM solutions suggest some
believable spotty 2+ inch totals by late this afternoon, and these
rainfall rates/totals may be enough to result in some isolated
areas of flash flooding.

Once again the more sensitive dry wash and burn scar locations
that see these heavy rains will be at greatest risk for seeing
flash flooding impacts.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-nsxpBNQIVUh2tRvZt-yX-m6YLkv_RQ5_VN06AQ59WlA1kxlnttQMdrBaAwfQ4aLEAjR=
3oaE1L-GYGKN8LxsIHvvFRE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...MAF...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   37960485 37700396 36820381 35030438 32920480=20
            32800572 34050607 34140673 32730751 31790799=20
            31330842 31280957 31181116 31831161 32431133=20
            33171103 34061128 35181201 35701169 35741112=20
            35800989 36360834 37230729 37830589=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.