Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 19 2025 18:51:31

AWUS01 KWNH 191850
FFGMPD
OHZ000-INZ000-192148-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0760
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
249 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...central Indiana into western Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191848Z - 192148Z

Summary...Isolated/spotty flash flood potential exists with
convection currently migrating eastward across central Indiana.

Discussion...Over the past hour or so, rain rates have shown an
uptick just northwest of Indianapolis.  Spots of 1.5-2.5 inch/hr
rain rates were noted per MRMS as a few mergers occurred within a
fairly focused band in that area.  The immediate downstream
airmass is characterized by abundant moisture and instability (2
inch PW values and 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), both supportive of deep
convection as storms migrate eastward through central Indiana over
the next couple hours.  With rain rates exceeding FFG thresholds
in a few spots, isolated instances of flash flooding could also
occur trough 21Z.

Convective trends supporting flash flooding increase in
uncertainty with eastward extent.  While isolated cells along the
IN/OH border suggest at least some potential for central Indiana
activity to reach that area, deep convection along the Ohio River
and pre-existing, more stable air across most of Ohio both suggest
that convection should weaken at some point with eastward extent.=20
The weakening trend should coincide with lower rain rates and a
reduced flash flood threat - perhaps after 21Z or so.

In the meantime, flash flooding is possible from areas near
Indianapolis eastward to near Dayton/Lima, OH.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-Opso0MBcnbfCPYQj7ZlY0HMTYP7YeAurYv2Ic3XtJ2EtcSbk8ijm7heWJ7aC_krRk5c=
FgvuhoRbYVTpZMnr8CyNueU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...IWX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   41098559 40538394 39558375 39158428 39138577=20
            39658675 40278651 40938637=20

=3D =3D =3D
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