Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 19 2025 18:28:28

AWUS01 KWNH 191827
FFGMPD
NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-200025-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0759
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
225 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-South...Far Southern
Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191825Z - 200025Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving and locally back-building/training areas of
heavy showers and thunderstorms will pose a threat for isolated to
scattered areas of flash flooding going through early this evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery has been
showing some gradual expansion of cold convective tops across
areas of northeast MS, northern AL, northwest GA and through
middle TN. The convection is associated with a southwest/northeast
oriented axis of mid-level vort energy and is embedded within a
very moist and unstable airmass.

MLCAPE values are as high as 1500 to 2500 J/kg with PWs as high as
2.0 to 2.25 inches. This will once again be conducive for very
high rainfall rates that may reach as high as 2 to 3 inches/hour.

The latest RAP analysis shows a corridor or relatively strong
low-level moisture convergence extending across far northwest AL
and middle TN in particular, and this coupled with differential
heating boundaries and the aforementioned weak vort energy should
favor some additional convective expansion over the next few hours
with some persistence into the evening hours.

Favorable Corfidi vectors are noted across the region with the
upwind propagation vectors aligned opposite of the 850/300 mb mean
flow and this suggests an environment conducive for back-building
convection and thus concerns for at least some localized
cell-training.

Given the slow cell-motions and back-building/cell-training
concerns, some spotty 3 to 5 inch rainfall totals will be
possible. Generally the 12Z hires guidance suggests a limited
amount of overall coverage to the heavier rainfall threat, and
there is disagreement also with the storm totals by this evening.
However, given the latest observational data, there appears to be
a window over the next several hours for additional concentrations
of heavy showers and thunderstorms with high rainfall rates. Some
isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible
going through early this evening.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5wIVswlT-E64libj3qaxq_YAciKmGxH2IQoQDtxOvsxfW2PFXlX6rgBH718bXlD3aAxg=
PbhNk0F-FtHyzpKILkWkQEA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...JAN...MEG...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   36308608 36298495 35878422 35838306 35038312=20
            34238628 33668801 33678930 34468958 35458835=20
            35908753=20

=3D =3D =3D
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