Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jul 19 2025 17:32:03 ACUS02 KWNS 191731 SWODY2 SPC AC 191730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER THE DAKOTAS... ....SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and some hail are possible Sunday across parts of New England into the northern Mid Atlantic. Scattered severe hail and wind are also possible over the central Dakotas. ....Northeast... An upper trough will pivot eastward across Quebec, with cooling aloft from NY into New England. Low pressure will deepen into southern New England during the afternoon, with a cold front progressing southeastward across the region, and nearing the coast around 00Z. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front, with MUCAPE up to 2000 J/kg possible. This will occur beneath 40-50 kt midlevel westerlies, resulting in a few long-lived cells producing localized hail. As storm coverage maximizes during the late afternoon, a few small bowing structures will be possible, with corridors of damaging gusts as well. ....Dakotas... A broad upper trough will remain from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, with minor shortwave ridging over the northern Plains where midlevel temperatures will still remain cool. A surface trough will develop from southeast MT into the western SD/NE/KS, where heating will be strong. Moderate uncapped instability and moist southeast winds east of the surface trough should yield clusters of storms developing from central ND into SD, moving southeastward through evening. Large hail is likely, along with aggregating/severe outflow/wind. ....Mid MS and OH Valleys... Although well south of the upper trough, modest west/northwest flow aloft will remain over the Midwest and OH Valley, near a stalled front with 70s F dewpoints. Tall/moist CAPE profiles with high PWAT suggest sporadic multicelluar clusters of storms will be possible from southeast IA into KY/WV during the afternoon. Localized wind damage will be possible. Higher probability corridors cannot be ruled out in later outlooks as predictability increases on the mesoscale. ...Jewell.. 07/19/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .