Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 19 2025 17:21:19

AWUS01 KWNH 191720
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-192311-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0757
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
119 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...southern Illinois, southern Indiana, much of
Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 191711Z - 192311Z

Summary...Deep, organized convection across southern
Indiana/Illinois has taken on a more favorable orientation for
training while producing 2+ inch/hr rain rates at times.  The
storms are also moving toward areas of lower FFG/sensitive ground
conditions from prior rainfall.  Areas of flash flooding are
expected, and significant local impacts are possible.

Discussion...Deep convection over southern Illinois/southwestern
Indiana has organized into more east-west oriented convective
bands that have aligned parallel to steering flow aloft while
promoting localized training.  Spots of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates
have been noted from near Salem, IL east to near Jasper, IN.=20
These cells are embedded in a very moist/unstable pre-convective
environment (2 inch PW values and 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE) that will
continue to support their persistence as they migrate eastward
across southern Indiana and eventually Kentucky.

Given the favorable orientation for training, high PW/instability
combo, and gradual progression of cells toward areas of abundant
prior rainfall/wet soils and lowered FFGs, concern exists that
significant flash flood potential could be evolving in a
relatively focused corridor across far southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky, with populated areas near/south of Louisville,
near/south of Lexington, and Owensboro being potentially impacted
through 23Z.  Given evolving convective trends, areas of 5+ inch
rainfall totals may be observed during this timeframe.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7GXpZHVZpHqeFhYX7L3Hn-tdLSrkQkOvIYgkUR0PSrBBppR4SQcCBC4SbrlBcanrLJmI=
uoI-kabA-jR8H4shsHv0ZhY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   39038544 38278284 37098437 37488933 38948873=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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