Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1720
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 19 2025 17:09:33

ACUS11 KWNS 191708
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191708=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-MDZ000-191915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1720
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...Virginia and northern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 191708Z - 191915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing off the southern Appalachians
will gradually intensify as they spread east through late afternoon.
The potential for damaging winds will increase in tandem with
thunderstorm intensity and coverage. Watch issuance is possible this
afternoon to address this concern.

DISCUSSION...The early stages of thunderstorm development is
underway per recent GOES IR imagery and lightning trends within the
southern Appalachians/Blue Ridge Mountains and in proximity to a
diffuse thermal low across central/northern NC. Thunderstorm
coverage should increase through mid-afternoon as daytime heating
continues to erode lingering MLCIN and near-surface parcels begin to
reach their convective temperatures. Regional 12z soundings sampled
slightly weaker mid-level flow compared to yesterday (15-25 knots),
so slower eastward propagation is anticipated. However, this will
allow downstream temperatures to warm well into the 90s with MLCAPE
increasing to 2000-3000 J/kg.=20

Convection should undergo steady intensification as a mix of
discrete cells and clusters migrate into, or develop within, the
CAPE reservoir across northern NC and much of VA. 7 to 8 C/km lapse
rates within the 0-2 km layer, coupled with theta-e deficits on the
order of 25 K and PWAT values near 2 inches, will promote strong to
severe downburst winds associated with deeper convective cores.
Sporadic damaging/severe wind gusts are anticipated, and a few more
focused swaths of damaging winds are possible if/when
loosely-organized, cold pool-driven clusters emerge. Recent high-res
guidance suggests this appears most probable across central to
eastern VA later this afternoon around peak heating. Convective
trends will continue to be monitored, and watch issuance is possible
as the severe threat becomes more widespread.

...Moore/Smith.. 07/19/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4595BOVjBgOXTZcUazhnlIj8zVl1J--cC4N9m3Hl7IsAmfaS3vmncST3LhuhZK0WzhjuBObgu=
zuGxOqkV14bq7kbmSU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON   37377619 37027616 36787625 36497650 36207684 35967729
            35707783 35567825 35507902 35527968 35558009 35698040
            35938074 36138089 36388095 36598089 38767844 38877797
            38897739 38737703 38447663 37917634 37377619=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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