Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1719
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 19 2025 12:15:08

ACUS11 KWNS 191213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191213=20
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-191345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1719
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...southeast Iowa...northeast Missouri...and western
Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 525...

Valid 191213Z - 191345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 525
continues.

SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat may persist this morning. A
downstream watch is possible.

DISCUSSION...A mature line of storms which developed earlier across
northern Iowa has progressed south with several measured gusts of 40
to 49 knots. Despite these near-severe wind gusts, no measured
severe wind gusts or wind damage has been reported thus far. A brief
TDS was sampled earlier by the KDMX WSR-88D, but quickly weakened
with minimal additional circulations observed.=20

Considerable uncertainty remains on the evolution of ongoing storms
as daytime heating begins. A slightly more favorable orientation of
the line has developed across east-central Iowa, but a north-south
oriented line of storms is advancing ahead of this portion of the
line which may limit any more favorable wind damage threat which
could materialize. The portion of the line across central Iowa
should continue to move south-southeast, but it is unclear whether
surface heating can occur quickly enough before increasing CIN
weakens this portion of the line. In addition, the low-level jet
which supported/helped maintain the MCS has weakened/veered and will
likely provide limited support going forward.

Therefore, these competing factors will continue to be monitored and
a downstream severe thunderstorm watch may be issued if a severe
weather threat appears likely south and east of watch 525.

...Bentley/Gleason.. 07/19/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-dhChAZqHhNf9gYTH1OBtontMmIEaj2mzQ7SBxNmTqLLoOIWSZNYHzxXFZXg7PDmXXgd5sNks=
CV0smWjzAoikH_0rdQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   41619385 41759324 41999254 42199221 42329202 42279141
            41738970 41558935 41298913 41138907 40968913 40578929
            40318946 40138976 39949025 39889119 40109215 40419267
            40819340 41619385=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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