Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1717
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 19 2025 06:54:58

ACUS11 KWNS 190654
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190654=20
IAZ000-WIZ000-190830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1717
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...much of northern...central...and eastern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 190654Z - 190830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A downstream severe thunderstorm watch is possible if a
more organized storm cluster can develop.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms across southern Minnesota has
started to show some strengthening over the past hour. The
environment downstream of this activity is still mostly uncapped
with 1500 to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 35-40 knots of effective shear.
Continued upscale growth along the synoptic boundary from southern
Minnesota into northwest Iowa is expected. This may result in a more
organized damaging wind threat persisting beyond 08Z and east of the
current severe thunderstorm watch. This solution is supported by the
HRRR/RRFS with more robust convection between 08Z and 12Z across
northern/eastern Iowa. Convective trends will continue to be
monitored and if a more organized/bowing lie segment develops, a
downstream severe thunderstorm watch may need to be issued.

...Bentley/Gleason.. 07/19/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9cTBQScGoHAecIH9rjooDX1iJgSOd29g8fBwuuWg1iI78Vg5Fj5-BQ-m-7zMkn9RqvkfrIxX4=
kajfzRSlyMZUHlH274$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   41269208 41619327 42029483 42619590 43269609 43459590
            43499450 43479300 43319166 42639084 42229055 41759071
            41409111 41259185 41269208=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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