Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1715
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 19 2025 02:02:02

ACUS11 KWNS 190201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190201=20
NEZ000-190300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1715
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0901 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Areas affected...Parts of central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 524...

Valid 190201Z - 190300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 524
continues.

SUMMARY...A localized corridor of greater tornado risk is evident in
central Nebraska. This threat will persist for 1-2 more hours.

DISCUSSION...A storm which has produced a few reported tornadoes
over the last 30-45 minutes continues to move southward. The KLNX
VAD has shown a steady increase in low-level SRH this evening as the
low-level jet increases. Based on observed storm motion, SRH is
higher than using standard Bunkers estimates. While a localized
corridor of tornado risk is evident, this threat will likely only
last another 1-2 hours before a gradual increase in MLCIN will
mitigate this potential. Aside from the tornado threat, very large
hail and severe winds could occur with this supercell.

...Wendt.. 07/19/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6RajXrJPnamYxSq1YlMgx68PVP-NsBEnYqXbCCPAObRCbPe2pwEfHi3wBCcxHNQrSZmMqXt6F=
pbDR2UD1l8XcfirWik$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...

LAT...LON   41869942 41759976 41770019 42070026 42370028 42659992
            42539950 41869942=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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