Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 19 2025 01:39:41

AWUS01 KWNH 190139
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-190700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0752
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
938 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Areas affected...Central and Southeast VA...Northeast NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 190138Z - 190700Z

SUMMARY...Strong and locally slow-moving clusters of thunderstorms
will continue to impact portions of central to southeast VA and
northeast NC going through the remainder of the evening hours.
Additional areas of flash flooding are likely, and this will
include some urban flooding impacts.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
regional radar data shows strong clusters of thunderstorms
continuing to impact areas of central to southeast VA and
northeast NC with the activity focusing in close proximity to a
northwest/southeast oriented stationary front.

A substantial amount of moisture and instability is pooled along
and south of this front, with MLCAPE values still as high as 2000
to 3000 J/kg across southeast VA and eastern NC. PWs are quite
high and suggestive of a deep tropical airmass with values of 2.0
to 2.25 inches in place.

Rainfall rates with the additional storms over the next few hours
may still reach 2 to 3 inches/hour with the stronger cells, with
some additional spotty storm totals of 3 to 4 inches possible
where any additional cell-merger or cell-training activity occurs.

This is consistent with the 18Z HREF/12Z REFS solutions, and
gradually the convection should weaken after midnight as these
storms settle down to the southeast and the available instability
becomes increasingly exhausted.

Given the additional rainfall totals along with locally wet
antecedent conditions and urban sensitivities, there will likely
be additional areas of flash flooding at least for the remainder
of the evening hours.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8Ru8KW5i11yRB0GLg_zOQ54VVOk2Y8FqLY8yge-jVlylNvMfARQvwnYvTUy100u3spaq=
wWgDD8-gJ0GERsWtplKqll4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...MHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON   38877767 38277675 37657632 37047590 36097554=20
            35327553 35197624 35737691 36397737 37257786=20
            38237846 38697827=20

=3D =3D =3D
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