Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 19 2025 00:48:58

ACUS01 KWNS 190048
SWODY1
SPC AC 190047

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NE/IA TO
SOUTHEAST SD AND SOUTHERN MN...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and
a couple of tornadoes are possible across parts of the Corn Belt in
Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and South Dakota tonight.

....NE/IA/SD/MN...
Initial thunderstorms along the eastern SD/southwest MN are expected
to greatly expand to the southwest along a quasi-stationary front
into the central High Plains, as a broad low-level jet strengthens
from the southern High Plains across KS. With a pronounced gradient
in mid/upper-level westerlies from south to north, a complex/messy
convective mode evolution is anticipated with a mix of supercells
evolving into predominantly clusters and a potential MCS overnight.
With a substantial MLCAPE gradient oriented north/south in southern
MN to northwest-southeast across IA, the most intense storms should
remain centered on the Mid-MO Valley through NE. Sufficient
low-level shear amid lower 70s surface dew points will foster some
tornado risk through late evening in the Mid-MO Valley vicinity.
Otherwise, initial large hail threat should transition to
predominantly strong/severe gusts overnight, with a gradual
weakening trend towards dawn in the IA vicinity.

....Eastern NC and southeast VA...
Widely scattered multicell clusters which have produced sporadic
wind damage along with measured strong gusts should continue towards
the coast over the next few hours. This activity should gradually
subside as it encounters pockets of previously overturned air.
Locally damaging winds will remain possible until these clusters
sufficiently weaken.

...Grams.. 07/19/2025

$$

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