Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jul 19 2025 00:04:00 AWUS01 KWNH 190003 FFGMPD TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-190600- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0749 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 802 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Areas affected...Southeast AZ...Southwest and Central NM...Far Southern CO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 190002Z - 190600Z SUMMARY...Monsoonal moisture entrenched across southeast AZ, much of NM, and far southern CO combined with lingering daytime heating and instability will promote additional heavy showers and thunderstorms going into the evening hours. Areas of flash flooding will continue to be likely, and especially to the more sensitive dry wash and burn scar locations. DISCUSSION...The late-afternoon GOES-W Day Convection RGB shows areas of strong convective forcing/updrafts continuing to occur across areas of far southeast AZ and southwest NM, along with areas of north-central to northeast NM and far southern CO. This is depicted in the Day Convection RGB images by the areas of brighter yellow colors which depict small ice particles at the tops of the cumulonimbus clouds. In these areas, strong surface-based instability is noted with SBCAPE values of 3000 to 4000 J/kg noted over northeast NM near the eastern slopes of the Sangre De Cristo Mountains. Values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg are noted over southeast AZ and southwest NM. Moisture is quite plentiful based on analysis from both the GOES-W WV suite and the CIRA-ALPW data which show strong concentrations of moisture in the 500/700 mb layer. This moisture and instability profile will continue to support high rainfall rates with the stronger storms, with some totals capable of reaching 1.0 to 1.5 inches in just 30 minutes. There will continue to be a notable orographic focus to some of the convection going into the evening hours, with deeper layer southerly flow overall continuing to drive monsoonal moisture northward out of northern Mexico. However, the steering flow will remain generally weak, and this will favor slow moving cells that may still locally remain anchored near areas of higher terrain. Some additional storm totals through this evening may reach 2 to 3+ inches, and this will likely continue to foster areas of flash flooding. This will continue to include concerns to the normally dry washes and any burn scar locations that see additional heavy rainfall. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!97-dQP2X1Qb7NrbxZUnPiOWDBhzXAlvdCgu4IIC5qBRyr0J4Okq9BWLm5Mwwtsn4xXyJ= x-xh7Ny5hsgsjmBWZr4_SQI$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...MAF...PUB...TWC... ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 38440474 38230360 37270295 35140352 33440449=20 31980455 31890581 31660728 31230818 31130951=20 31351037 32301022 33030961 33750929 34540892=20 35310772 36030676 37050590=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .