Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1713
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 18 2025 23:10:34

ACUS11 KWNS 182309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182309=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-190045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1713
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0609 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Areas affected...Parts of southeast VA into northeast NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 182309Z - 190045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Localized damaging wind remains possible early this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of strong thunderstorms are ongoing
early this evening across southeast VA into northeast NC. The
environment across the region remains modestly favorable for
organized convection, with rich low-level moisture, MLCAPE of
2000-3000 J/kg, and veering wind profiles resulting in effective
shear of 20-30 kt. However, storm intensity and longevity have been
somewhat limited thus far, potentially due to weak low-level flow
and poor midlevel lapse rates.=20

A storm cluster moving across south-central/southeast VA has
gradually become better organized early this evening, and may remain
capable of producing at least isolated wind damage as it moves
eastward. Additional discrete cells developing ahead of this cluster
have also intensified somewhat, and may merge into the larger
cluster with time. These discrete cells may exhibit transient
supercell characteristics in the presence of multiple surface
boundaries, and be capable of producing localized wind damage and
perhaps some hail.=20

Other storm clusters are ongoing across parts of central into
northeast NC. Deep-layer shear is somewhat weaker with southward
extent, but these clusters will remain capable of producing
localized wind damage before weakening later this evening.

...Dean/Hart.. 07/18/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!791wrfMUvC7yN7MVrhzeRhMQrOvPYcKshKcSP8MaZKY3eDwJ1py5rKU_Lxx2XNGl21nOnP91r=
Zc7WIKrG91K_pnBjAw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   35147732 35537917 37397851 37517708 37377632 36587588
            35807562 35207721 35147732=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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