Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1711
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 18 2025 22:17:28

ACUS11 KWNS 182217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182217=20
KSZ000-190015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1711
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0517 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 182217Z - 190015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe gusts and hail are possible into
early evening.

DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster that developed near the OK/KS
border is propagating northeastward along an expanding outflow late
this afternoon, with additional storm initiation noted into parts of
east-central KS. A weak MCV is moving across the region, and may
help to sustain scattered thunderstorms through the early evening.=20

Storms approaching Wichita have a history of producing golf-ball
sized hail and localized severe gusts. While deep-layer flow is
relatively weak, modest veering with height is supporting effective
shear of 20-30 kt, sufficient for at least transient storm
organization in the presence of strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of greater
than 3000 J/kg). The most likely hazard into early evening may be
strong to severe gusts along the northeastward-moving outflow across
south-central KS, and also with localized downbursts associated with
the more discrete storms. However, isolated hail cannot be ruled out
given the magnitude of buoyancy.

...Dean/Hart.. 07/18/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_BShHI4bh326g9UpmS3qLwYRJPyw5TfJ9wr61UJ3FkfCvLlvuV8KGg0KMEEEL4zUYxDVUMDmE=
aRPRM1sMXVeIjFqtA4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   37299812 38279837 39239763 39529700 39509623 39199596
            38699591 37859649 37459685 37299732 37299812=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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