Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 18 2025 22:05:58

AWUS01 KWNH 182205
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-190230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0747
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
604 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Areas affected...Central and Southern AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 182204Z - 190230Z

SUMMARY...Isolated areas of flash flooding will continue to be
possible going through the evening hours from slow-moving
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows
cold-topped convection over southern AR becoming a tad more
concentrated over the last hour near a long-lived MCV and
associated weak surface low (formerly AL93). The convection is
embedded within a strongly unstable and moist environment
characterized by MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3000+ J/kg and PWs of
2.2 to 2.4 inches.

The 12Z HREF/REFS guidance suggest that convection over the next
few hours may become a bit more organized with some loosely
focused areas of heavy rainfall potential near the weak low center
associated with this energy. This will include locally slow
cell-motions with rainfall rates that will be capable of reaching
2 to 3+ inches/hour. Some spotty totals of 3 to 5 inches cannot be
ruled out given the persistence of these cells including potential
for some small-scale cell-training.

FFG values across the region are quite high, but high rainfall
rates and localized persistence of these rates may yield concerns
for at least isolated areas of flash flooding going through the
evening hours.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-7hHSy5o6FNE8ERhN4jOpQxQ6YCjvaC6Ejbk-xyMclvb6EQpJnIDk8Sn1Ic_Q2afw2Qw=
EX9BO5037slO2neg7_sjTmc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   34939234 34569148 33629142 33089199 33009274=20
            33059343 33449388 34069390 34619343=20

=3D =3D =3D
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