Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1709
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 18 2025 17:22:00

ACUS11 KWNS 181721
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181720=20
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-181915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1709
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Missouri to western Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 181720Z - 181915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing from southeast Missouri to
western Kentucky will pose a risk of damaging winds through late
afternoon, but watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are in the early stages of development to
the west of I-55 in central/southeast MO within a diffuse stationary
frontal zone. Through the afternoon, increasing southerly low-level
winds will bolster low-level isentropic ascent, which in conjunction
with peak heating, will promote additional thunderstorm development
along the frontal zone into western KY. Weak winds within the lowest
9 km will limit overall storm organization/longevity and promote
mainly multicell clusters. As such, the potential for a robust,
prolonged severe threat is limited. However, MLCAPE values
approaching 3500 J/kg by late afternoon, combined with equilibrium
levels near 14-15 km, PWAT values near 2 inches, and theta-e
deficits near 25 K will promote strong water-loaded downdrafts
capable of strong to severe downburst winds. The potential for
sporadic damaging gusts should increase through late afternoon as
thunderstorm coverage increases.

...Moore/Smith.. 07/18/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-Eh1INUgTEdX2moG__syCM_LQPEsjQkojMYKCecvPNjNLietWsdzECsWigD0dPdGaKOPHVHqg=
DRl8n-rA7k0u2rBRIM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   38189121 37999061 37749010 37518948 37548871 37528830
            37438788 37248766 36828764 36518781 36358815 36308881
            36258948 36379014 36449090 36519130 36639159 36819182
            37339219 37619229 37809231 38159213 38289165 38189121=20


=3D =3D =3D
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