Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jul 18 2025 07:23:23 ACUS03 KWNS 180723 SWODY3 SPC AC 180722 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC INTO OHIO AND MISSOURI VALLEYS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorm development may pose at least some risk for severe wind and hail across parts of the Mid Atlantic into Ohio and Missouri Valleys Sunday into Sunday night. ....Discussion... One notable mid-level perturbation is forecast to accelerate northeastward out of the Pacific Northwest into the eastern Canadian Prairies, but another digging short wave will maintain larger-scale troughing across the Pacific Northwest through this period. Downstream, a significant mid-level perturbation emerging from the Hudson Bay vicinity is forecast to continue digging southeastward, across the St. Lawrence Valley and lower Great Lakes region into the Northeast. As this occurs, a reinforcing intrusion of cooler and drier air likely will progress southeast of the Great Lakes region through much of the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, while generally stalling across the lower Ohio through middle Missouri Valleys and adjacent portions of the Great Plains, beneath the northern periphery of fairly prominent mid-level ridging centered over the northern Gulf/Gulf coast vicinity. ....Northern Great Plains into Mid Atlantic... The frontal zone, and surface troughing to the lee of the Rockies, will provide potential focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development Sunday through Sunday night. This could include upscale growing clusters with potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts and some hail. However, relatively warm mid-level temperatures may tend to inhibit thunderstorm development, and the risk for severe weather, where potential instability is forecast to become strongest (including mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg) across parts of the middle into lower Missouri Valley. With the front also tending to become displaced to the south of the stronger westerlies in the East, and sub-synoptic perturbations likely to be a significant contributor to thunderstorm development, considerable uncertainties linger concerning the severe weather potential for this period. ...Kerr.. 07/18/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .