Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1705
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 18 2025 04:46:30

ACUS11 KWNS 180441
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180441=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-180615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1705
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Areas affected...Parts of eastern MT into southwest ND/northwest SD

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 522...523...

Valid 180441Z - 180615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 522, 523
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind/hail threat may persist into late
tonight.

DISCUSSION...Earlier supercells have weakened across east-central MT
late this evening, but other strong cells are approaching southeast
MT. While CINH is gradually increasing across the region, MUCAPE
approaching 1000 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear will continue to
support some organized convection late tonight, accompanied by a
threat for isolated severe wind and hail.=20

Ongoing convection may eventually approach parts of southwest ND and
northwest SD into the early overnight hours. Even if the ongoing
storms continue to weaken, redevelopment of elevated convection will
be possible across parts of the Dakotas within a low-level warm
advection regime. The need for downstream watch issuance is very
uncertain, due to the weakening trend with ongoing storms, and
potentially limited severe coverage with the later elevated
convection. Trends will continue to be monitored for any uptick in
storm organization and intensity.

...Dean/Hart.. 07/18/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!44CnOxLpiUbSsNI9_nX0NFYtgkb4QAH4favMcA-KgJ7TD9tAj2RwN8ObZBHJ6LyxdqqDvRyW2=
cAMBHJKmd8mpsveqzQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   46240692 46440687 46620674 46760660 47190569 47150403
            46450221 45090168 44720226 44600298 44890408 45580609
            46110693 46240692=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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