Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 18 2025 01:34:44

AWUS01 KWNH 180134
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-180730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0737
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
933 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma through Southern Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 180132Z - 180730Z

SUMMARY...Increasing convection along and south of a stationary
front extending from southern Indiana to northern Oklahoma.
Training activity is expected to continue, so scattered instances
of flash flooding are likely through the overnight.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered heavy thunderstorms are developing
along a stationary front that extends across northern OK, southern
MO, and southern IL and IN. An enhanced moisture axis of of 2.0 to
2.2" PW is along this frontal zone with ample instability west
from southern IL (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) and a little less to the
east which has been worked over with 1000-2000 J/kg. The heaviest
northeast OK activity has max estimates of 2.5"/hr which can be
expected to continue with effective bulk shear of 20-30kt.

Recent HRRRs are aggressive with northeast OK into the Ozarks rest
of the evening while the RRFS is rather limited on additional
development. Given the environment and ongoing activity, further
upscale growth can be expected to continue through the rest of the
evening. Sly low level inflow around 15kt will help maintain
activity over OK with some backing to the SWly low level flow
farther east to promote some maintenance. WSWly deep layer
steering flow is parallel to the front and will support
repeating/training activity. Max totals of 2-4" can be expected in
three hours. Western portions of the outlook area have higher 3hr
FFG, around 2.5", due to it being just south of recent rainfall
with areas in southern IL/IN have lower 3hr FFG, around 2" less,
from earlier rain. Scattered flash flooding can be considered
likely into the overnight.

There is a threat for further overnight activity, so a followup
MPD is possible.

Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!75r3mHbidSLmVDDONxC3xpr_K4L1m4g3TpshZIc7loyS1N790EByKlUmPS6oZoJWVmcq=
2sHXF5L9R-0cnPCz7Sacqv0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG...OHX...
OUN...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   39148756 39088597 36538626 36018893 35659204=20
            35419449 35489661 36529721 37019561 37239352=20
            38159170 38579040 38828904=20

=3D =3D =3D
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