Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1700
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 17 2025 20:41:20

ACUS11 KWNS 172040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172040=20
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-172245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1700
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Areas affected...Portions of VT...NH...and ME

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 521...

Valid 172040Z - 172245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 521
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado or two
continues across portions of VT, NH, and ME.

DISCUSSION...Early afternoon soundings (i.e. 18Z) at CAR and GYX
sampled a moist and unstable airmass across the region, with little
to no convective inhibition. The CAR sounding also sampled moderate
vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear of 43 kt), while notably
weaker deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear of 25 kt) was
sampled farther south at GYX. This variance in shear matches
previous expectations and continues to place the greatest severe
risk across northern ME.=20

An initially more cellular mode has trended towards a more
cell-in-line mode over the last hour or so. Even so, the
environmental conditions favor a continued threat for strong to
severe storms. Strong downbursts remain the greatest risk,
particularly as mid-level flow gradually strengthens. There is
enough low-level shear (i.e. 0-1 km 15 to 20 kt) to support a brief
tornado as well.

...Mosier.. 07/17/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-UeIlR2ISboGWPJiAU_0cMngXVdKjRkH_keSbZulvXudi-giShWS5jPA9G0A3vdjUqUD0EaGr=
9cMaT61oAwrzqbCieE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

LAT...LON   47396939 47456844 47176770 46526776 44617002 43937193
            44507307 45477125 46517019 47396939=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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