Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 17 2025 20:24:10

AWUS01 KWNH 172024
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-180115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0732
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
423 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Areas affected...Far West Texas to the Big Bend

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 172021Z - 180115Z

Summary...Diurnal terrain based convection will continue to
develop over the Davis and Guadalupe Mtns. Cells anchored to the
terrain with 2"/hr rainfall rates will continue to drive an
isolated flash flooding threat into the evening.

Discussion...IR satellite is necessary with limited radar coverage
over these western portions of Texas and it depicts scattered
terrain based activity over the Davis and Guadalupe Mtns with
additional activity approaching the Big Bend region. 1.5" PW is
1.5 to 2 sigma above normal with MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg more than
enough to allow further heavy development as activity attempts to
shift off the highest terrain. Light southerly mean layer flow
around 10kt will keep motion slow and allow for outflow processed
to dominate further development.

Recent runs of both the HRRR and RRFS are underdoing the current
convection depiction, though the RRFS does seem reasonable to
include isolated maxima in the Big Bend region. Localized 2-3"
rainfall can be expected through 01Z which would cause flash
flooding.

Jackson=20

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9-8N87jaTb98bMRbk_gvHVEPlj5aOMmaQMXigLE2Hnd-Rbz2vYTVfU1oWHamIWIQReKw=
e1kdDpnRS8rLy6G0fEQQX6Y$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   32550583 32420458 31880361 30600259 28900307=20
            29610453 30790546 32150635=20

=3D =3D =3D
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