Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 17 2025 18:55:10

AWUS01 KWNH 171855
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-180052-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0730
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Areas affected...East-Central New Mexico...Southeast Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 171852Z - 180052Z

Summary...Thunderstorm coverage is expanding along the terrain in
East-Central New Mexico and Southeast Colorado. Cells initially
anchored to the terrain with 2"/hr rainfall rates should drive an
increasing threat of isolated to scattered flash flooding this
afternoon.

Discussion...Visible satellite and radar mosaic highlight
scattered thunderstorm development with estimated 1-2"/hr rainfall
rates across portions of the Sacramento and Sangre de Cristo
mountains amid strong insolation, post-frontal upslope flow, and
DCVA from a weak shortwave in Northern Mexico. Additional
development of slow moving thunderstorms is expected as short-term
RAP forecasts suggest 2000-3000 J/kg of SBCAPE and 1.1-1.2" PWATs
develop along the terrain. As this activity matures, the primary
concern is for cells to remain anchored along the terrain this
afternoon given the easterly low-level flow with southwesterly
flow aloft -- leading to slow overall storm motions with enough
effective bulk shear (20-25 kts) to enhance storm longevity and
organization. Eventually this evening storms should propagate
eastward off the terrain as cold pools congeal. Until then,
however, HREF neighborhood probabilities suggest increasing
likelihood of 1-2"/hour rainfall rates atop vulnerable areas in
the terrain with 1"/HR FFGs, which should drive an increasing
threat of isolated to scattered flash flooding this afternoon.

Asherman=20

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-CYqNeRRd1C27db0ZOk31J0SykH3fNyHVSZ-seA5nmXFHOFJ3ysdky_1sINBfGHIALqQ=
QANc_lqIWr6bO9QVrhSbyss$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   38110527 37500429 35900457 34270524 33120509=20
            32640525 32590590 33400655 34610665 35760615=20
            36930573=20

=3D =3D =3D
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