Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 17 2025 08:31:05

AWUS01 KWNH 170830
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-171230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0725
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
430 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico and Western OK/TX
Panhandles...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170830Z - 171230Z

SUMMARY...Lingering instability in proximity to southeasterly
isentropic ascent and outflow boundary collisions continues to
develop clusters of slow moving storms capable of 1.5"/hr and
spots of 2-2.5" totals and possible localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um IR loop and RADAR mosaic, once again
show a few clusters of developing elevated convection across
northeast NM into the Panhandle of OK.  RAP analysis shows a
lingering zone of uncapped to weakly capped MUCAPE (1000 to 1500
J/kg) residing over a clearly shallow cold pool northwest of the
outflow enhanced cold front that bisects the OK/TX Panhandle
before angling westward (though still dropping south) across
central Curry county into De Baca per KFDX RADAR.  Persistent LLJ
from just east of due south remains fairly strong at 30kts.  Tds
in the mid to upper 60s across the Cap Rock combined with
southwest to northeast deeper layer moisture axis along the
northeast side of the southwest US ridge connecting to the exiting
mid-level shortwave over SW KS, provides ample deep layer moisture
to support rates of 1.5"/hr.

Deep layer flow in this axis is also weak and motions appear to be
more associated with propagation along any outflow boundaries and
proximity of the cold front; with greatest converging boundaries
reinvigorating the local updrafts to keep the cycle going.  As
such slow south and southeastward motions are expected, bringing
risk toward and across the NM border.  Given 1-2 hours of
residency, some spots of 2-2.5" remain possible until the
LLJ/moisture flux weakens. While rapid refresh guidance has a
notorious bias toward earlier weakening, current forecasts suggest
another 3-4 hours before the LLJ veers more southwestward and
weakens to 20-25kts around 12z.  As such, the risk of localized
flash flooding remains. especially across lower FFG in NE NM and
along south of the Canadian River in the TX Panhandle (1hr FFG
~1.5")

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4adpLatkFJY-6X3tgdXM1U-QB8K71VeguNnjTI6JL5TbLlzWRrhQMqSULBYT2wBJT8N5=
CxokIFd3BGNSmPhomrK2DbQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   36960249 36750189 36140149 35390141 34800172=20
            34280277 34310391 35280465 36100429 36640373=20
            36930301=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.