Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jul 17 2025 07:14:03 AWUS01 KWNH 170713 FFGMPD MOZ000-KSZ000-171200- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0723 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 312 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...West-central MO... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 170710Z - 171200Z SUMMARY...Elevated convection starting to progress into a linear complex. Scattered incidents of flash flooding possible, though additional 2-4" in/near KC Metro more likely to result in FF conditions. DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic depicts a complex interaction between older, surface rooted cells/outflow boundaries are starting to intersect merge with increasingly progressive elevated convection from across north-central and northeast KS. Of greatest concern is very broad up/downdraft region nearing the KC Metro area. This cluster lies at the intersection of older outflow boundary from original cells in the KC Metro that has returned northeastward under stronger south to southeasterly WAA. Very moist (2-2.25" PWat/low 70s Tds), unstable air (2000-3000 J/kg) is highly convergent (20-25kts of BL ascent) over the cold pool and is capable of 2-2.5"/hr rates; combined with upstream scattered elevated convective cores will allow for potential of an additional 2-4" in and surrounding the KC Metro area, increasing the likely potential for flash flooding conditions given increased runoff over impermeable ground surfaces and poor drainage areas. Along the remaining line, cold pool generated in north-central KS has resulted in southeastward propagation of the elevated cells; however, convection is starting to reduce in cloud base as it nears the surface boundary and south to southwest LLJ inflow.=20 This angle of inflow will support southwest flank continued development with favorable propagation vectors back toward the southwest. Further upstream clusters in north-central KS will drop southeastward as well, allowing for some repeating and localized 2-3" totals to occur. Still, the overall interaction with older outflows will likely result in a very inconsistent scattered nature to enhanced pockets of higher rainfall totals with a broader area of 1-2" totals. As a result, flash flooding conditions are likely to be very focused/localized. Hard dry soil conditions could also aid in increased run-off given their hydrophobic nature with soil saturation values only at 20-30% (or generally in the 5th-15th percentiles for saturation). So minus the likely flash flooding in KC Metro, most areas are going to be on the edge of no or low-end flash flooding conditions within the area of concern through late overnight this morning.=20=20=20=20 Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-vSWg8CxP-q6ygoJi4QnH9j99lAGm2JGZV3xCeIPclNXhgJnkItBtqc8Go4khRSRMNNF= zqMr-sy8sbxiND-gfV0OV2A$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP... ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 39509697 39439581 39419531 39239383 38919309=20 38459292 37839329 37479417 37469559 37739669=20 38569790 39169788 39449764=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .