Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 17 2025 05:30:01

AWUS01 KWNH 170529
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-171000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0722
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
129 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Areas affected...Southwest Kansas...OK & N TX Panhandles...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170530Z - 171000Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, mature MCS will linger with intense
rainfall rates up to 2"/hr and additional 2-3" totals, potentially
crossing rainfoot of prior heavy rainfall and possible re-trigger
of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um EIR loop shows mature MCS across SW KS
still with overshooting tops cooling below -75C; while RADAR shows
bow is starting to propagate, but also intersect a few developing
cells along the elevated inflow bands over the shallow cold pool,
as the complex remains northwest of the surface low and well
defined cold front across southwest KS into northeast NM.  Still
strong low level response with 20-30kts of inflow and remaining
pool of 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE.  Deep layer flow is generally weak
between the Southwest US ridge and the exiting large scale trough
across the Upper Mississippi River Valley; that the MCS and parent
shortwave have found a relatively stagnant area to settle and
slowly move.

Ample deep moisture advected on those low level inflow (and
limited loss to evaporation in the sub-cloud layer) of over
1.75-2" total PWats supply solid flux to support rates up to 2"/hr
even extending into to the southern flanking line across the OK
and into TX Panhandles.  Hour or two of slow advancement should
allow for additional 2-3" totals locally; and with strong
700-500mb ridge downstream into central KS, forward propagation
vectors are limited to the strength of the backed low level
inflow.  Eventual loss of unstable air will lead to slow decay;
but incident of flash flooding or two is still plausible,
especially if the complex advances to the 2-4" rainfoot of the
cell that went from SW Pawnee across Ford into Meade county
resulting in localized flash flooding; any intersection may
further aggrivate or retrigger flooding conditions.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6mLNwF3NAsXlzhgQek7ErvPchZVu3GxZG58iJpu4lKqK70kI40JTVIB2zU9U7cXzn6K_=
mhcUYQS0gB9RtZOLIdr8oCQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...GLD...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   39280010 38789925 37739917 37059998 36400040=20
            35990134 36240249 37020196 38180189 38840131=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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