Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1696
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 17 2025 00:01:11

ACUS11 KWNS 170001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170000=20
MIZ000-170100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1696
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Areas affected...portions of central/northern Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 170000Z - 170100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms moving east may pose a risk for strong to severe
wind through the evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues across Lake Michigan
and portions of northern/central Michigan. Overall, this activity is
remaining below severe limits. CAM guidance suggest that some
re-intensification could occur as they move inland over the next
couple of hours. The air mass across Michigan remains favorably
unstable, with sufficient deep layer shear for organization around
30-40 kts. It is uncertain if storms will pose a more organized
severe threat moving inland. Trends will be monitored across this
region but a watch is unlikely to be needed.

...Thornton/Hart.. 07/17/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9mzbrP5mEylU5iZLGpMzmJCZl8Rk_pALFdFgg8DHvqf91rKjU-I3mQdgk3LIEhCDxpmpj2nhQ=
Lcs9f3W2TyKjYWgEUs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON   43708651 44228640 44848595 45348546 45688465 45508388
            45128355 44558356 44018352 43408406 43118468 42938605
            43708651=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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