Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 16 2025 23:57:59

AWUS01 KWNH 162357
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-170545-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0714
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
756 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Areas affected...High Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162356Z - 170545Z

Summary...Discrete supercells in the southern CO and northeast NM
High Plains will continue to shift east in light steering flow.
Ample moisture and instability will allow for this activity to
congeal and form a sizable flash flood threat area to the east.

Discussion...Downstream of discrete supercells over southeast CO
and northeast NM is ample moisture (1.4 to 1.6" PW) and
instability (MLCAPE gradient from 1500 J/kg in a min along the KS
border increasing both east and west). This should allow for
further development. Light steering westerly flow around 20kt will
keep activity shifting east, but storm scale effects to allow
deviant motion to the supercells.  Recent HRRR runs are decently
depicting current activity and feature QPF max of 2-4" near the
CO/KS/OK borders through 06Z which seems reasonable. Given 3hr FFG
is around 2" flash flooding is considered possible.

Jackson.

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6pMYBv5DegKdow3T-czEfHuoMeyDi_vZOL8Tl5s9rJ5Ubv4ZWZD4_MGQ7JHLnKgpKMqM=
50klX9Vm_flxn_mgjAJlVJg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...ICT...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   39160198 38689887 37479935 36050110 36200419=20
            37610499 38810417=20

=3D =3D =3D
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