Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 16 2025 23:22:16

AWUS01 KWNH 162321
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-170410-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0713
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
720 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Areas affected...Upstate New York and Northeast Pennsylvania

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 162319Z - 170410Z

Summary...Cluster of heavy thunderstorms along with NY/PA border=20
should continue to shift northeast through the evening making for
a likely flash flood threat.

Discussion...A thunderstorm cluster west of Elmira looks to
continue shifting northeast while backbuilding into the deep layer
20kt SWly flow. Sufficient instabilty (SBCAPE 2000 J/kg) and
moisture (1.7-1.9" PW) should allow the activity to continue to
develop and produce up to 2"/hr rainfall as has been seen. This
area has low FFG (around 1" per hour) from recent rains, so flash
flooding is considered likely. This area is ahead of an impulse
which may allow for overnight activity, so further MPDs may be
necessary.

Jackson.

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5p-3ogiqVSAj53RmansQy57yvTLKuxFNxtSXVPmXjCy-OKW5fPfNBjCFDX19I8RlAP5C=
yl1iGdfGiYnEr5-OLZ3SHK0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   43027658 42727478 41787480 41497752 42037826=20
            42487810=20

=3D =3D =3D
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