Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1693
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 16 2025 23:01:40

ACUS11 KWNS 162301
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162301=20
COZ000-WYZ000-170000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1693
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0601 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado and extreme southeast Wyoming

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 519...

Valid 162301Z - 170000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 519
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms will persist into this evening,
with the more favorable corridor for storm clustering with hail/wind
into southeast Colorado.

DISCUSSION...Scattered severe storms are ongoing across eastern CO
within the upslope flow regime on the cool side of the synoptic
front from western KS into the OK Panhandle and extreme northeast
NM.  Surface temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to lower
80s with mid-upper 50s dewpoints, contributing to MUCAPE near and
above 2000 J/kg.  Midlevel flow is a little stronger with northward
extent, but easterly low-level flow is resulting in sufficient
deep-layer shear to maintain the potential for supercells.  Stronger
surface heating will be maintained into southeast CO in advance of
storms moving east of the higher terrain, which is where the greater
potential for storm clustering with hail/wind will reside.

...Thompson.. 07/16/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9Dem6P4LxjLSOzoM6ro_e7YEMsuINZ5Tbxpq0tL-mTMF7zmk-JIcXUnoyST2an_8Lzkr6R9P2=
RmNYfFcRt8jgIiWPoM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   37720512 38410538 39340484 40070480 40960541 41300530
            41340473 40800372 40320291 39290284 38240276 37490271
            37220275 37070310 37080381 37200444 37720512=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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