Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1692
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 16 2025 22:37:15

ACUS11 KWNS 162237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162236 COR
KSZ000-170000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1692
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0536 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Areas affected...Central and southwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 162236Z - 170000Z

CORRECTED FOR PEAK HAZARD INTENSITIES

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development along and to the immediate cool
side of the front is expected through late evening.  Isolated
downburst winds and large hail may occur, but limited storm
organization suggests a watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures have warmed into the low-mid 90s
along a stalled front across central/southwest KS, where strong
buoyancy (MLCAPE > 3000 J/kg) and minimal convective inhibition
coincide.  Ascent atop the frontal surface should support scattered
thunderstorms through late evening, where steep midlevel lapse rates
will favor some potential for isolated large hail and strong-severe
outflow gusts.  However, storm intensity/duration should both be
limited by relatively weak vertical shear (only modest enhancement
to low-level shear on the cool side of the front).  Thus, a watch
will likely not be needed.

...Thompson/Hart.. 07/16/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5RuIVpEdq4RHjwsPFT4-uNvggTjrMT1rIs01EEPjvdq1u680wooXzWKKA7CiX5j8xuUbyvasN=
bl3NsG3FQuR3yq4nzg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   39129825 39099780 38889759 38729775 38649830 38289934
            37530017 37650034 37900036 38270022 38559987 38949907
            39129825=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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