Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1691
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 16 2025 21:51:00

ACUS11 KWNS 162150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162149=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-162315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1691
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Areas affected...Northern Missouri into extreme northeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 162149Z - 162315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along a
stalled boundary, with the potential for isolated strong-severe
gusts and marginally severe hail.  Limited magnitude and duration of
the threat suggests that a watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is underway immediately east
of Kansas City, with other deepening cumulus along a stalled
boundary near I-70.  Surface temperatures in the low 90s with
dewpoints in the low-mid 70s have largely eliminated convective
inhibition and additional thunderstorm development is probable along
the boundary/convergence zone the next couple of hours.  This
corridor is along the southern fringe of 25-30 kt midlevel flow, and
deep-layer vertical shear is likewise modest and largely confined to
the immediate cool side of the boundary.  Still, large buoyancy
(MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg) will support strong updrafts, while
precipitation loading and downdraft potential will support the
potential for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts.  The overall
severe threat is expected to remain marginal given limited storm
organization/duration, and a watch appears unlikely.

...Thompson/Hart.. 07/16/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-MDW0yrt9GRI8is39Zb6YVdmBiCMGd5PyQmGQM5VfDYVBfPDXoVOiJRQ9-XW-ekSnQ_srVBE1=
iNyotD0FHDfNtBx31c$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39039196 39159282 39169356 39139451 38979628 39009667
            39279674 39429639 39619492 39689425 39689336 39649291
            39579231 39529216 39449195 39279181 39039196=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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