Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1688
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 16 2025 19:28:57

ACUS11 KWNS 161927
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161926=20
WIZ000-162100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1688
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Areas affected...Southern WI

Concerning...Tornado Watch 517...

Valid 161926Z - 162100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 517 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes and damaging downbursts will
continue for at least the next several hours across southern WI.

DISCUSSION...Two lines of thunderstorms are currently progressing
northeastward across southern WI. The easternmost line is associated
with earlier warm-air-advection-initiated storms while the
westernmost line is along the wind shift close to the surface low.
The airmass across the entire region is characterized by ample
low-level moisture, robust low-level instability (i.e. 0-3km MLCAPE
over 100 J/kg), and strong surface vorticity. These conditions led
to the development of several tornadic supercells within the leading
line. This trend will likely continue within both of these
convective lines for at least the next few hours. As such, the
tornado threat continues. Damaging gusts from strong downdrafts and
isolated hail are possible as well.

...Mosier.. 07/16/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8VekfNhAv5EJMBRG7iC9jtGU4fYedzqam8xuog5LP0I6TRzF4L86KhPxgz53Lbj1SULJrdf-H=
U8HFIlfkCDu0ffrZho$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...

LAT...LON   43989022 44348966 44238876 43648787 42678793 42558880
            42618949 42929008 43489036 43989022=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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