Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 16 2025 16:57:15

AWUS01 KWNH 161656
FFGMPD
WIZ000-162200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0707
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1255 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Areas affected...portions of Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161655Z - 162200Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are increasing in intensity and coverage
across southwestern Wisconsin, and areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates
are expected through 22Z.  Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts deepening
convection along an axis extending from near LaCrosse, WI
southeastward to near Dubuque, IA.  The storms were being forced
by a compact mid-level vort max centered over northeastern Iowa.=20
The heavy rain threat was being supported by 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE
values and 1-1.6 inch PW values.  Furthermore, the cells were
oriented somewhat favorably for localized training/repeating -
especially on the northern side of the complex where rain rates
have locally exceeded 1 inch/hr across southeastern Minnesota over
the past hour or so.

Over the next 3-6 hours, the convective complex will migrate
eastward across much of Wisconsin while continuing to strengthen.
Models and CAMs support an axis of 2-3 inches for rainfall
(locally higher) with this complex as it migrates eastward.=20
Furthermore, recent rainfall in the region has locally lowered FFG
values, with spots of <1 inch/hr thresholds noted near Green Bay.=20
Flash flood potential will gradually increase from west to east
across the discussion area in tandem with the evolution of the
convective complex.

Cook/Emerson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9lUKJiLNdeMsbAmyK58qgierjWVrWnAk6hEN7qR_yMWHGJlB56Wn2OGZLrjXggYWWVE1=
U1c4lNoX8RmeNKmE2YIiba4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON   45158851 44818773 44018756 42808772 42508807=20
            42719011 42979086 43899128 44179161 44489193=20
            44839128 45089002=20

=3D =3D =3D
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