Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 16 2025 11:52:17

AWUS01 KWNH 161151
FFGMPD
AZZ000-161400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0706
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
750 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Areas affected...central/southern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161150Z - 161400Z

Summary...Isolated showers and thunderstorms are migrating slowly
westward within an abundantly moist airmass across the discussion
area.  Flash flooding is possible in typical low spots and
terrain-favored areas.

Discussion...A mid-level vorticity maximum was fostering deep
convective development this morning along an axis from
terrain-favored areas near Prescott south-southeastward to near
Tucson.  The storms are in a very moist environment, with PW
values nearing 1.75 inches and surface-based CAPE values exceeding
500 J/kg.  Wind fields aloft are fairly weak, contributing to
modest/erratic storm motions.  A recent band of convection just
north of Tuscon has exhibited slightly better organization for
training and rain rates near 1 inch/hr that were threatening local
FFGs in the area.

Ongoing trends should continue for at least another 2-3 hours (and
beyond) as the lingering MCV favorably interacts with
surface-based instability across the region.  Spots of 0.5-1.0
inch/hr rain rates are expected to contribute to a localized flash
flood risk in typical terrain-favored low spots.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_hHFUn3IIHRKUAvOs-qY2t_hDscO16z2XHIhRv5qV-YhlY8Xs6MFVkTsY8rZvT6iOSev=
dU3SXPn_T73a74u6FcrrjDc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON   34491218 33901092 32951037 32191021 31421090=20
            31971215 32891286 34301299=20

=3D =3D =3D
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