Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1681
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 16 2025 00:57:48

ACUS11 KWNS 160056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160056=20
WYZ000-160230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1681
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Areas affected...parts pf central Wyoming

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 515...

Valid 160056Z - 160230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 515
continues.

SUMMARY...A small cluster of thunderstorms may pose a continuing
risk for severe hail and wind east of Lander toward areas near and
south of Casper through 8-9 PM MDT.

DISCUSSION...A small cluster of thunderstorms is maintaining
intensity east of Lander and appears supported by low-level updraft
inflow emanating from a well mixed boundary-layer characterized by
CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg.  Objective analysis and model
output suggest this environment extends in a narrow corridor across
and southwest of Casper, into the western slopes of the Laramie
Mountains.  Although westerly deep-layer mean flow is weak, this is
partially due to pronounced veering from low-level easterlies to
mid-level westerlies, with Rapid Refresh forecast soundings from
around Casper indicating some strengthening of wind fields
contributing to strong shear during the next couple of hours.

...Kerr.. 07/16/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4wSz3q7q-FuaHORLkppvihDyRY0xUYU0JVcPyDMqVye8R9sV-ACVNQzSOny5YIb__bwdaMiRt=
8HbdWdi1UoxpybxeI4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON   43050782 43240636 42490555 42080624 42550726 43050782=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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