Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 15 2025 23:04:50

AWUS01 KWNH 152304
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-160400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0702
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
703 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Areas affected...South Central Appalachians and Piedmont

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 152303Z - 160400Z

Summary...Scattered instances of flash flooding are expected to
continue through this evening as coverage of slow moving
thunderstorms exceeding 2"/hr rainfall rates persists over the
Virginia and North Carolina Piedmont west to the crest of the
Appalachians.

Discussion...Scattered heavy thunderstorms continue to propagate
over the central/southern VA and all of the NC Piedmont through
the Charlotte metro. Furthermore, convergence of outflow from
activity over southern coastal NC should allow new development in
central NC this evening. Recent mesoanalysis data suggests 2500
J/kg of SBCAPE and 1.8-2.2" PW through the area remaining allowing
warm rain processes. 10 kts of westerly effective vertical shear
will continue to result in generally disorganized storm modes, but
slow overall storm motions (5-10 kts) with periodic mergers to
locally enhance rainfall rates in excess of 2"/hr at times.

Locally considerable flood is expected to persist this evening,
though much of this area is west of where the heaviest rain fell
yesterday.

Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!90byj-1780CK5skx4hbHo2D9O_V99EX4UUKD-4uKlpQrcC7R_AuV0OFCg-kPEMvcFPu7=
ShLjU_gEN5dTMD4VOZZc2bY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...GSP...ILM...LWX...PBZ...RAH...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   39347949 38687890 38437780 38077748 37567766=20
            36697880 36037885 35927787 35417796 34917914=20
            34518064 35258199 36808113 37588054 38178022=20
            38998014=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.